Quakes Almeyda-Era: The Economics of 2019-2020

In 2018, the first year I followed the San Jose Earthquakes, I watched our club become the worst team in MLS. Still filled with youth and innocence, I simply enjoyed the atmosphere of Avaya stadium and knew there was no where to go but up. When Matias Almeyda was hired as the 2019 coach it was universally praised as a significant step in club turn around and rebuilding. In classic Almeyda fashion the years that followed have contained pure passion, for better and worse. The highs have been euphoric (Mid 2019 season and MLS is back) and the lows feel cataclysmic (end of 2019 and current losing streak).

With the recent blowout losses to LAFC and Seattle, along with a draw against a mediocre Colorado, fans are (rightfully) reaching for the panic buttons. Black and Azul chat was filled with cries to pour more money into the club or change ownership to provide Almeyda with the ammunition he requires. With this in mind we have decided to dig into the Quakes recent spending habits and analyze what has changed economically with Almeyda’s arrival. Ultimately this is all to better help understand the main question: 

“Are the Quakes providing Almeyda with sufficient financial resources to continue moving the club in the right direction?”

2018-2019 Payroll Transition

To accurately assess the direction the Quakes are currently heading in we need to first examine how things were just before Almeyda joined. Here is how the 2018 Quakes payroll compares to other teams.

2018 PAYROLL RANKING:

Payroll Rank	Club	Payroll	Points	$ per Point Earned
18	Minnesota United	$8,542,121	36	$237,281
19	San Jose Earthquakes	$8,308,343	21	$395,635
20	New York Red Bulls	$8,066,146	71	$113,607

 

Make no mistake, the Quakes are in the bottom 1/3 of teams in MLS when it comes to overall spending. With a total of 24 teams in 2018 only 5 teams spent less than the Quakes: NYRB, COL, NE, DC, and HOU. But keep fresh in your mind this implies 5 teams spent less money than the Quakes and still managed to finish with more points (we were dead last!). Some of these teams even managed to make the playoffs or finish at the top of the table (kudos NYRB!).

Now, let's examine how the spending changed in Alemyda’s first year:

2019 PAYROLL RANKING:

Payroll Ranking	Club	Payroll	Points	$/point
17	Minnesota United	$10,632,485.61	53	$200,612
18	San Jose Earthquakes	$10,146,855.39	44	$230,610
19	Philadelphia Union	$9,854,738.30	55	$179,177

In 2019 Earthquakes still fall into the bottom third of payroll spending teams but an additional $1,838,512.39 of spending has pushed them to 18 of 24. (Note I am not counting Godoy against the 2019 salary cap due to his trade early in the season). So to say that ownership has not invested more money in Almeyda’s team than previous years is not true. The additional $1.8 million spent in 2019 was a ~22% increase in overall payroll which actually ranks upper half of teams. 

Again notice that several teams close to this range had very successful 2019 campaigns. This is most clearly illustrated by the ‘$ per point’ column. This divides the total payroll by how many points a team earns to see how much a club is spending to earn their points. Teams such as MINN and PHI are spending roughly the same total payroll as the Quakes but finishing higher in the table, resulting in a better ratio. Spending ~$10 million (or less) on total players still can result in successful teams in 2019 MLS when executed correctly. 

To avoid being overly critical of the club it should be noted that the Quakes 2019 $/point ratio still falls within the upper half of all clubs. So, to some extent, the Quakes are spending money more intelligently than the majority of MLS teams. For example Toronto finished the season with only 6 more points than the Quakes but spent $24 million to do it! They are spending roughly twice as much as the Quakes for every point! (Toronto fans will probably laugh it off and cite the 2019 MLS Cup finals appearance but it is clear their regular season was not what the Toronto front office paid for).

2018-2019 Player Payroll Transition

Some Quakes fans may be surprised at seeing the 2019 payroll increase of $1,838,512.39. Where did it all go? Well, despite what TUDN announcers may tell you in the broadcast, there was a relatively high turnover in Almeyda’s first year. Here is a complete breakdown of how money was reallocated between 2018 and 2019

Released from team or Pay cut

Newly acquired player

Existing Player Pay Adjustment

Qwiberg	167,999
Quintana	341,250
Hyka	539,996
Wehan	57,992
Godoy	473,125
Thiaw	54,500
Musovski	54,500
Oduro	54,500
TOTAL $ Cut	1,743,862

Cowell	67,225.00
Espinoza	550,000.04
Haji	104,000.00
Judson	305,000.00
Lopez	387,749.96
Rios	729,250.00
Vega	210,000.04
Fierro	718,800.00
TOTAL $ NEW PLAYERS	3,072,025.04

	2018	2019
Affolter	232,650.04	$281,999.96	49,349.92
Akanyirige	56,500.04	$64,225.04	7,725
Bersano	68,254.20	$71,666.88	3,412.68
Calvillo	114,999.96	$136,500.00	21,500.04
Cummings	300,662.67	$320,666.67	20,004
Eriksson	399,999.96	$450,000.00	50,000.04
Felipe	68,500.00	$71,625.00	3,125.00
Fuentes	81,999.96	$92,000.04	10,000.08
Hoesen	518,000.00	$549,666.71	31,666.71
Jungwirth	566,671.07	$616,675.07	50,004
Kashia	549,999.96	$590,000.04	40,000.08
Lima	100,200.03	$218,437.54	118,237.51
Marcinkowski	132,000.00	$147,000.00	15,000.00
Marie	54,500.04	$57,225.00	2,724.96
Ockford	67,500.00	$70,875.00	3,375.00
Partida	54,500.04	$57,225.00	2,724.96
Qazaishvili	1,454,042.36	$1,604,042.36	150,000
Salinas	200,000.00	$249,999.96	49,999.96
Tarbell	102,000.00	$235,000.04	133,000.04
Thompson	170,000.00	$174,999.96	4,999.96
Wondolowski	800,000.00	$800,000.04	0.04
Yueill	196,000.00	$190,000.08	-5,999.92
TOTAL $ RAISES			760,850.06

To summarize the above the Quakes freed up roughly $1.7 million from releasing players, spent $700K giving players raises, and used another $3 million acquiring new players. When you take it all together: The Quakes increased spending by about $2 million dollars to acquire new players in 2019.

Before we examine the newly acquired players some salary increases were notable. Andrew Tarbell was given an extra 100K a year to go from starting goalkeeper to a backup which is quite painful. Vako, Lima, Salinas, and Magnus all received a hefty raise but at least they saw regular playtime. These salary raises predate the "Almeyda era" so let’s focus on what players were brought in during his first year. 

First let’s examine Espinoza. Looking purely at 2019 regular season stats, 2 G (xG 5) and 9 A  (xA10.6), some feel Espinoza has underperformed, however, I believe it deserves a second look. Anyone who is currently following the Quakes probably picked up on two related things; 

    

    One: successful Quakes games depend on constant attacks from the wings

    Two: the Quakes have very little ability to create chances through the middle of the field (other than Vako when he is hot). 

This puts a tremendous amount of pressure on Espinoza to create all our teams chances and (I imagine) gives any opposing team a clear indicator of who they need to focus on to bottleneck our attack. Espinoza is also  one of the most dependable people hustling back on defense to break up counter attacks, a staple of the Almeyda play style. Even factoring in the large transfer free and the pay increase this still feels like Espinoza is a great overall DP investment to me.

Judson’s contributions are not possible to assess with basic stats and would require a much deeper dive into advanced analytics. To avoid getting off track I am making the claim, through the eye test, that Judson’s constant hustle and roaming in the midfield is well worth the $300K the Quakes were paying.

Lopez and Haji I am bundling together because we did not really see much of them in 2019.  Haji is training with Reno for the foreseeable future. Lopez apparently played in 18 games in 2019 but I have trouble recalling that. Almeyda eventually focused on Thompson/Lima as wide backs making 2019 a somewhat forgettable year for him. Haji’s so early in his career and his pay is so small it is mostly a non-effect at this point. Lopez’s 2019 is probably viewed as a disappointment but again, his pay is relatively small, and his 2020 career has showed more promise. Overall I am neutral on both of these signings so far.

Vega has become one of the most polarizing signings. He makes tremendous saves but also costly errors in key games. While it is certainly debatable if JT or Bersano should be starting in 2020 right now I don’t believe goalkeeping is the Quakes core problem. Combine this with his relatively low payroll cost and I am neutral on this signing as well.

Finally lets look at Fierro and Rios. According to the MLS Players association their signings required the Quakes to shell out ~$700,000 for each, totaling to 1.44 million dollars, roughly 13.5% of the teams total payroll. Here is a quick overview of their 2019-2020 results. Keep in mind they signed towards the end of the 2019 season therefore they have only been on San Jose's roster for a little over half a season (~20 games).

	Games Started	Games Played	Minutes	G	xG	A	xA
Rios 2020	8	9	740	2	1.87	0	0.84
Rios 2019	1	10	263	1	0.96	0	0.56
Fierro 2020	0	4	68	0	0.8	1	0.31
Fierro 2019	2	7	225	0	0.99	0	0.09

The immediate thing that jumps out to me is the lack of minutes with Fierro (apparently there is some injury not actively discussed). Its tough to assess Fierro with such a small San Jose sample size, but looking into the past, Earthquakes should not predict a consistently playing Fierro will result in a large influx of goals/assists. In 185 appearances with Guadalajara, where Almeyda coached him for several years, Fierro scored 17 goals and 17 assists. This is about 1 goal/assist every 10 games.

Rios was mainly used as a sub in 2019 but has graduated to full time starter in 2020 giving us a clearer picture of what we should expect. With roughly 8 entire games played this year he is sitting with 2 goals (and overachieving his finishing based on xG). This matches his scoring pace at Vasco De Game and Defensa y Justicia, clubs he had 91 appearances for between 2016-2019. From my eye test he appears to be a number 9 who can finish Espinoza’s crosses, albeit less consistently than Wondolowski, and has demonstrated few instances of creating his own chances or dishing out assists. Rios is a forward who predictably scores 1 goal every 4 games and is currently not creating chances for himself or other players. If you are a lower payroll team you can not afford to pay 720K for 8 goals a season.

Given historical data and the current sample size it is currently hard to to view the Rios and Fierro signings as anything other than a significant misallocation for the club’s limited resources. 

 2019-2020 Payroll Transition

The second year transition of Almeyda’s reign was smaller in terms of player volume. Without MLS Player’s Association official data the below table shows the estimate of spending changes (thanks Colin!).

Espinoza	460,000
Espinoza - Transfer Fee	2,500,000
Alanis	650,000
Magnus	-450,000
Judson	200,000
Wondolowski	-350,000
Affolter	-232,650
Calvillo	70,000
Beason	100,000
Ochoa	67,225

Wondo honorably went the Tim Duncan route of reducing pay as he ages to bring in fresh talent. The only other notable spending cut was letting Magnus walk away. The savings from Wondo and Magnus generally covered the Alanis loan, Beason draft, and the pay raise for Judson.

But by far the most significant news was signing Espinoza as a DP and paying the large transfer free. It is rumored the transfer fee was 2.5 million and Espinoza’s salary nearly doubled to 1,000,000. Adding it all up, Quakes spent roughly an additional 3 million on players in 2020, primarily Espinoza. This is a 30% increase of the 2019 payroll (when you factor in the Espinoza transfer fee) and is one of the highest percentage increases among the league.

2019-2020 Season Evaluation: So far ( Sept 12 2020)

With 2019 deja-vu the Quakes began 2020 with their slow start, chaotic rise in MLS Group Stages, to crashing and burning in Phase 1 of the Regular season. To analyze it all would be beyond the scope of this article so let's try and focus on how the newly spent money is performing.

Alanis on paper seems like a great complement to the back line. The Quakes defense is full of fast or brutish players who rely on crazy endurance and man marking to keep attackers at bay. Alanis, in many ways, is the mirror opposite for both good and bad. He has the composure and finesse that San Jose lacked but seems relatively slow (i didn’t watch him play in Mexico so not clear if its age or just his body type). He brings something the Quakes lack but has been torched 1 on 1 a few times (notably Minnesota is quarter-final). If the Quakes are able to be a possession dominate team I think he works quite well. Overall, I am slightly positive on this signing. 

The loss of Magnus Eriksson, was something I greatly underestimated (and apparently the Quakes did as well). He was a limited number 10 who could not take anyone 1on1 and  didn’t provide many assists/goals (2018:G6 A3 2019:G6 A7 2020: G1 A1). Keep in many of his goals were PK’s he didn’t earn himself. He was also prone to getting blown by on defense in any foot race. 

But during all this frustration Magnus was quietly (okay not quietly he yells a lot) playing a critical role in our attack. As mentioned earlier Almeyda’s Quakes are almost entirely dependent on attacking from the wings. A vital component in building attacks for the wings is switching the ball quickly from right to left side and pushing quickly. This allows you to penetrate the weak side before the defense has time to adjust. Magnus, for all his faults, was consistently great at either directing ball movement or launching long switch passes himself. Just watch the match versus RSL in the MLS is Back tournament to see him at his very best. Since his departure the Quakes are much slower and hesitant to switch the ball. By the time Espinoza has the ball defenses have shifted and he is shut down. This is solely based on my intuition watching the games and deserves a larger analysis some other day. But for now I make the claim: The Quakes attacking style was heavily dependent on Magnus Eriksson and they have shown no short term adjustments to fix it.

I will be a little harder on Espinoza for 2020. So far, over 8.5 games he has only 1G and 4A. Given the 3 million newly spent permanently acquiring him this year it is hard not to be disappointed with those stats. He appears less consistent beating defenders 1on1 but still has his flashes of brilliance. I think the results are more to due to a lack of other options for creating chances in the final attack third . This allows teams to focus on him and and take him out of the game. In my opinion, he is still worth the signing fee but he desperately needs help from a quality 10 and 9.

Beason, was thrown right into the fire for MLS 2020 Phase 1. He made some incredible stops against LA Galaxy but has bested by great attacking wings/forwards. He has potential but it will take time and discipline. He may be a good pairing under Alanis to learn from.

Cowell is clearly a beast who can fill a similar role as Espinoza except swapping technique for pure athleticism. They could be the long term midfield wings for the club if he stays on track but asking him to solve the current team problems is not an option.

Most of the other additions were youth players who need a lot of time developing still.

Conclusions

After following the money in the San Jose Earthquakes for the past 2 years it is evident that ownership is increasing payroll spent on players for Almeyda. With an extra $1.8M spent in 2019 and another $3M spent in 2020 the Quakes, under Almeyda, are actually increasing their payroll at a faster rate than many MLS teams. It should be remembered an unfortunate amount of money is being put towards raising existing players salaries after a Wooden Spoon season  (beyond Almeyda's control)  but the majority still went to acquiring new players in 2019.  The growing concern is that, other than the Espinoza and Judson, new players have yielded unsatisfying results. Particularly using nearly 15% of the team’s payroll for Rios and Fierro. 

Despite the quakes narrowly missing the 2019 playoffs last year there was clear evidence the increased spending created better results. In 2018 the Wooden spoon Quakes paid $395,000 per point while under Almeyda’s first year they spent only $230K per point to climb just short of the playoffs. The alarming thing in present 2020 is that even greater spending has resulted in worse results. If the Earthquakes keep up the current 2020 pace (averaging 1 point a game) they will nearly surpass the $/point ratio of the dreadful wooden spoon season ($382,000).  You can not expect an investor to throw large money at you all at once. Instead the logical route is incremental progress followed by an proportional increase in investment.

Moreover other teams are proving you can spend the same as the Quakes and compete with the best (MIN/PHI).  My fear now is a creeping thought that Alymeda’s style can not work with a lower payroll team like the Quakes (even as they attempt increasing spending) or an even larger issue that this play style will be countered by good teams given enough time for opposition to prepare. 

For year two of the Alameda-Era I think it is time to concede the RSL game in MLS is Back was the peak and look onward to year 3 of this experiment. With an estimated ~3 million in existing contracts being freed at end of year the Quakes can afford to do a fair amount of retooling with or without additional investment.

Conclusions: Counter Points

Never one to avoid self doubt I have compiled a list of reasons I may be wrong and Alymeda has magic on the nearby horizon

• There are a rumored 8 players who are likely entering their final year of contract. This is estimated to free up roughly 3 million in cap space for 2021 allowing for another large volume overhaul in similar to Almeyda's year 1.

• The majority of the newly spent money is going to new players, however, there is still a significant portion that is being used to raise previous players salaries in contracts pre-Almeyda.

• Jesse Fioranelli has gone on record in San Jose Mercury news that there are plans to sign at least 1-2 DPs from Latin America this year. If he stays true to his word this could be a game changer to give Espinoza someone to play off of and finally give the Quakes an attacking presence in the middle of the field

• Alymeda’s system is highly dependent on all players staying with their mark and rotating as needed. If one player gets beat the system can collapse horrifically. Until Alymeda has his ideal 11 his system could be significantly unfulfilled.

• If there is one thing I have learned these two years its nothing is for certain (except getting destroyed by LAFC). Alymeda’s quakes are unpredictable and they could hit a stride anytime. But given the difficulty of their current schedule I think it is unlikely.










Until next time, Go Quakes.

-@Seismometer74